Predictions are a notoriously risky business – just ask the IMF (about which Hopi Sen says everything that needs to be said I think).  But getting away from the unerliability of six-month projections by the IMF, how about a prediction from 1973 that I came across this week.This is from a column John Peel wrote in The Listener in June 1973:
Today these same experts or their descendants would probably be telling you that in twenty years’ time collectors will still be enthusing over the records of such weighty bands as Yes and Emerson, Lake, Palmer. I’m ready to bet you a few shillings that Yes and ELP will have vanished from the memory of all but the most stubborn and that the Gary Glitters and Sweets of no lasting value and Top of the Pops will be regarded as the true sound of the seventies.
I think he was probably right, although of course some collectors do still enthuse about Yes and ELP although as a Yes fan I expect I fall into the category he describes as ‘stubborn’.
Otherwise I think it is true that the popular image of the seventies is Sweet, Slade, Mud, Bay City Rollers, and the like.
In truth, I don’t think that is quite representative of a few years but that you can’t treat the decade as one homogenous lump. It wasn’t really a decade with a single identity: not as much as the 60s or 80s anyway.
There was the glam/pop thing, but the punk explosion also happened in the same decade and 75/76 was really dominated (for me anyway) by rock in its prog, metal and soft varieties – it is easy to forget just how huge Frampton Comes Alive, Bat Out Of Hell and Rumours were, while Genesis were routinely having their Earls Court and Knebworth concerts broadcast live on the radio.
On the whole though, I think Peel showed better predictive abilities than economists, even if he didn’t anticipate the Gary Glitter incidents which now mean that he is likely to be airbrushed out of most 70s retrospectives. I bet he wouldn’t have believed that Yes would be looking at 40th anniversary tours with shenanigans that even got into mainstream news, and the growing profile of Rush after so long would bemuse him even more.
We may well end up this evening in a local nightclub which is called Flares (or sometimes Reflex). Long story and you probably don’t want to consider the idea of me and Rob dancing to closely but… The 70’s stuff will definitely be all the Sweet, Slade, Mud & Rollers stuff but will also have the whole disco/motown thing as well as the Greas-inspired 50’s music. The rockiest I can hope for will be Suzi Quattro I think.
If its 80’s night I think it will be even more predictable (Duran-Duran, Wham, ABC and all that) but we are hoping that they forget about the late 80’s acid house.
Of course, the most controversial part of the quote is the fact that, even as a fairly young man, John Peel has had a senior moment and forgotten that bets in shillings are no longer accepted as legal tender….
Did you go and are there any photos of the crime scene?
I had meant to mention the whole disco thing – yet another distinct 70s scene to go along with glam/pop, prog and punk. Shows how futile it is to try and label the whole decade with one style.
Agreed it is much easier with the 80s.