All the so-called experts are poring over sets of inconsistent polls, trying to work out what might happen in the general election. Will the Lib Dems still be in a coalition with the Tories or would the Tories combine with UKIP? Might Labour have to form a coalition with the Greens and SNP and maybe even the Lib Dems as well? Would there be a unity government of everybody?
As we all know, the way our system is set up it doesn’t matter what proportion of the vote you get so much as where those votes are, which is why parties have been able to get 10% or more of the vote nationally without picking up even one seat, let alone the half dozen that their share of the vote might suggest.
Personally I have no idea what will happen, and I am mainly focussed on hoping Chris Oxlade wins locally, but a part of me would like to see a national result so obviously unfair that the pressure to change the system will be unignorable. For example, a general election where UKIP, the Greens and the Lib Dems get more than 50% of the vote between them but no seats at all and then either Labour or the Tories getting an outright majority of seats while getting fewer votes than the other nationally.
Such a result isn’t completely impossible and maybe that is what it would take to get us to look at something different, and if there was another referendum on a change to the voting system there would be enough dissatisfaction to motivate people to actually vote on it this time.