Masthead
One of my photos

Operation inflation

March 22nd, 2019 · Posted by Skuds in Life · No Comments · Life

Well. Had a meeting with my surgeon today. Instead of the original estimates of a 7-hour operation followed by a hospital stay of 7 to 14 days, where they might try to send me home after 5 days it now looks a bit different. Because they want to put in a tracheostomy for various reasons I am looking at a 12-hour operation followed by at least 14 mights in hospital but possibly a week longer.

Not what I would have wanted, but the alternative is dying within a year or two so I guess I’ll have to put up with it.

And again I was bombarded with risk statistics without any details of the dataset they are based on. For example, the operation has a 5% risk of mortality. That could be good or bad depending on the sample. If it is based on that doctor’s operations then it would not be o good. If it is a UK-wide figure then its better odds. If it is a global figure it could be even better odds. If the sample includes at least 5% of people about twenty years older than me and with other conditions, then its brilliant. But as with all these things there is no way of telling.

The same with the 50% chance of complications, except that is even muddier because ‘complications’ covers a range of events that go from hardly worth mentioning to life-threatening. I should have asked them to quantify the complications as a three-point estimate and do a Monte Carlo analysis 🙂

My own view is that it will probably be OK, then all I have to worry about is the common side-effect of lethargy which is expected to last six months! Probably just as well that I am standing down from the council, because realistically I wouldn’t be able to start doing anything before Autumn.

Tags: ·

No Comments so far ↓

There are no comments yet... Kick things off by filling out the form below.

Leave a Comment

*
To prove you're a person (not a spam script), type the security word shown in the picture. Click on the picture to hear an audio file of the word.
Click to hear an audio file of the anti-spam word

 

 
Comments Policy:

  • Comments from anyone who is unknown (ie who has not commented before) will go into a moderation queue to be approved. This is to prevent spam/advertising comments and there may be a delay before such comments appear.
  • As far as possible I will not reject moderated comments or delete published comments, even if I disagree with them or if they are criticising me.
  • I intend only to delete/reject comments which are offensive, racist, homophobic, sexist or similar or if they are in any way illegal/libellous.
  • If you think a comment meets those criteria and I might have missed it, let me know.
  • Although technically I am able to edit comments I will not do so unless it is to remove embedded code which is causing problems.
  • If it is ever necessary to edit a comment it will be made clear that it has been edited.
  • Certain words in comments will cause the whole comment to be automatically consigned to the dustbin (Aavaisha, hmmegatest, cognitive, phentermine, xanax, pharmacy, viagra, vicodin, casino, ultram, tamiflu, valium, tramadol, levitra, carisoprodol) for obvious reasons.